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“Prices in the last couple weeks of August have been in a sideways trading pattern, which is better, but that really does nothing to soften the fact that prices are at some of the lowest levels we’ve seen in about four years,� said Erica Olson, market development and research manager for the North Dakota Wheat Commission. “Other commodities are in a similar situation, so it’s not great for producers right now.

“It's harvest time, and that always puts pressure on the market. But then also adding to that pressure is the fact we have ample world supplies and there are just no major supply concerns out there,� she added.

As a result of harvest and ample supplies, Olson noted that cash prices have slipped lower to around $4.75 to $5.20 for harvest time delivery. However, there is a bit of a carry for delivery for the October through December timeframe, so prices are about 30-50 cents higher for those months depending on the area.

Another contributing factor is that world wheat production for 2025 is estimated at yet another record at 807 million metric tons (MMT). For example, in Europe, production is expected to rebound to the highest there in a few years, and production in Argentina is forecast to be about 6 percent higher this year.

“Looking at the other major producers, they’re anticipating steady to slightly lower production levels, but the key is there’s just nothing disastrous. Yes, maybe slightly lower (production) here and there, but nothing major,� she said.

But there is still some uncertainty about total world wheat production. The U.S. and Canadian crops are not completely harvested yet, and Russia is forecasting lower production this year. So far, harvest results in Russia have been variable, according to Olson, adding that drought did impact some of their winter wheat regions, but it does look more favorable in their spring wheat areas.

“The big thing there will be what happens to their exports. Exports were much lower than average last year, and they’re expected to recover a little this year, but it looks like it will still be below average,� she said. “So, there’s a lot of questions about how or if that export piece will pick up.�

Another thing to remember, she noted, is that world ending stock levels are forecast to be the lowest in 10 years.

“Even though we’re not looking at any major production issues this year, that’s just something to consider going into next year, that (stocks are) a bit tighter than average,� she said.

North of the border, Ag Canada recently updated their supply and demand estimates but did not change the forecast for the non-durum wheat. That was left at 28.9 MMT, which is down slightly from last year. As harvest is just getting started in Canada, there wasn’t much else to report on.

Here in the U.S., earlier in August, USDA lowered the production forecast for spring wheat from its previous estimate. The updated projection is down about 4 percent to 484 million bushels (MB). USDA also lowered its yield estimate, which Olson feels is more accurate.

“In North Dakota, they brought it down to 55 bushels per acre, the earlier estimate was 59 bushels per acre,� she said. “As is the norm, we are seeing variable harvest results. We’ve been hearing about a lot of good yield reports, but also some reports of yields lower than expected, especially in areas that were a bit drier this year.�

In terms of the U.S. spring wheat crop, over half of the nation’s crop was harvested. North Dakota’s harvest is about 40 percent complete, which is on average pace.

“We’ve finally seen that humidity and wet conditions abate a little, so we’re seeing better harvest progress. In terms of quality, so far there have been pretty good protein and test weights reported, but there are some pockets of lower falling numbers value, but nothing widespread,� she said.

On the demand side, Olson said there has been pretty good export demand for U.S. wheat. In fact, USDA raised the U.S. wheat export forecast from 850 MB in July to 875 MB in its August report. However, most of that was for hard red winter wheat, while the forecast was lowered a bit for hard red spring wheat.

“We are seeing that trend in our sales reports. So, compared to last year, total wheat sales are up 22 percent,� she said.

Hard red winter wheat sales are more than double last year’s pace. But, to put that in perspective, Olson explained that's coming off a couple very tough export years. Hard red spring wheat sales are down 9 percent.

“A lot of that is (because of) some of our top customers, but then we’ve picked up demand from some smaller markets in Central America, and there are just more sales that are classified as ‘unknown’ at this time, so it’s a bit confusing,� she said.

“Overall demand for U.S. wheat is good, but it would be beneficial to see some stronger demand for hard red spring wheat start to pick up. Hopefully we get to see that, but we also know we have some tough competition from the Canadian market, as well. Going forward, the main thing is going to be the continued focus on harvest for the U.S. and Canada, but also Russia,� she concluded.